Data

How do you make good decisions?
In business, you look at data. I love our software dashboard at the music store. I see sales by category, day of the week, comparison to last year, and much more. Tracking information is extremely useful.
As we are looking at this pandemic, it's hard to sort through the disinformation to get to good data. I don't care about the politics, I want data. I want something I can use to make a good decision. Here's what I can't use.
*This is all a democrat hoax to derail Trump's re-election. This would mean that US Democrats have infiltrated every country on earth and created a virus spread to spoil Trump's chances for re-election.
*This will all be over when the election is over. Wow! Then every country in the world should be demanding that we do the election NOW. US election done - Virus over. Done. That sounds like a great plan.
*The tests are not accurate. Well, yes, that is likely true. So, are we to believe there are NO positives and EVERY negative is correct? That doesn't sound right. How many people have it and spread it but have no symptoms? Don't we need to know that?
*There is a difference between dying from corona and dying with corona? OK If I smoke and develop lung cancer, is it the lung cancer that killed me or the smoking?
Mostly, I see people twisting themselves in knots trying to minimize what is actually a very serious problem.
So, how am I making decisions?
First, I look at the big picture. What's happening in other countries? How are they handling this? What is working? Who's doing better and why might that be?
I follow regional reporting. And I depend on my personal contacts. I have a personal connection to someone who tested positive and got pretty sick while a spouse tested positive and showed no symptoms. Who had it first? We don't know.
I personally know a handful of people who have direct experience with death FROM covid. (And I cannot think of anyone IN MY LIFETIME that I know who have direct experience with death FROM flu.)
I personally know someone who does the contact tracing and says there is much to be concerned about and much we do not know publicly.
I am personally connected to someone who has been working in a Covid hotspot hospital for months on end and is outraged that anyone is calling it a HOAX.
Those are the basis of my decisions. Personal data collection. Careful data collection. And sorting the stupid bullshit out. You talk politics. I don't care about it. I have a business to run and I'm not playing footloose and fancy free.

Russian Roulette

Some months ago, a friend called to tell me her family was on quarantine because one of them had tested positive for Covid-19. It was during the shut down so we hadn't seen each other in weeks. I wasn't scared for me but I was scared for them. As it turned out, none of them ever showed symptoms. Was it a false positive? Maybe. But there was good reason to believe the test was correct. They all did the right thing and ensured that they were not asymptomatic carriers. I'm sure it wasn't easy and I was happy when I checked in and she reported that they were all well.
Then a local friend shared a tragic story. One of her friends died within one week of testing positive for Covid-19. Her uncharacteristic reaction was, "the shit just got real".
Meanwhile, friends and family are divided about the seriousness of the disease spread. And there lies the saddest part.
Yesterday I talked for over an hour with someone who just tested positive for Covid-19 and they are suffering on multiple levels. Scared, isolated, experiencing symptoms - they shared that calling family for support didn't feel like a good decision. I heard stories about family posting rude comments on social media and open hostility to those expressing serious concerns about this pandemic. "I don't want them to know because I don't think they would be understanding or supportive."
While this is someone I believe is healthy and will get past this, I have cried often since our talk. I get it.
I'm as respectful as possible with those who don't share my level of concern. But understand that I see NOT being concerned as playing Russian Roulette. And I am NOT playing. I'm not about to pick up the gun. Keep your gun away from me. If I am wrong, you will not be harmed. If you are around to be angry with me, I'm happy - even if you keep saying I was wrong.
If YOU are wrong, I'm dead.

A book to inspire...

The Little Locksmith by Katherine Butler Hathaway is the most interesting and thought provoking books I have ever read. In this memoir, she weaves her story around the decision to buy a house. As she works to bring the old house back to it's former self, she discovers herself. While this is not a religious book, she takes us on a spiritual journey as she helps us understand her life and how the house unlocked the woman trapped inside her.
We learn that she spent 10 years of her childhood strapped to a board in an attempt to cure her from spinal tuberculous. (She was born in the late 1800's) In a situation that would seem unimaginable, she finds joy. As she weaves the story of her house into the story of her relationships with family and friends, she touches on spiritual understanding that reaches deep. Her style of writing is wonderfully descriptive and filled with quotable lines that jump from the pages as deep truth to hold.
The Little Locksmith is a story about connectedness. It reminds me to stop and see. It reminds me that connection to all things lies within. Joy lies in our ability to see the amazing in even the smallest things. Joy is creation or as Katherine says "God within".
This book touch my spirit as it has caused me to reflect on my own life and those transformative relationships that have influenced me. Her wit and insights are as relevant today as they were 100 years ago. If you are looking for a great summer read that is inspiring, this is one I highly recommend.

Who do you know?

At my annual physical in early February, my doctor said, "That virus in China will come here. We don't know when and we don't know how serious it will be, but it will come." And he cautioned me to boost my immune system. We talked strategy. I started doing what he told me to do.
When the media started getting excited about it in March, someone else I respect told me not to get too concerned. "The flu takes thousand of lives every year," she said. And I googled to find she was right. By then, the US was just in the hundreds. But I watched Italy. And I kept doing what my doctor told me to do. I boosted my immune system.
Months have followed with the president calling it a hoax, followers insisting the numbers are inflated, the media is "lying" and people refusing to wear masks. I'm still boosting my immune system.
The "hoax", the inflated numbers, the "media lying"??? Maybe you don't know people affected by this very virus or refuse to believe they are telling the truth. When friends tell you their family has been affected, their family members have died from this, they have had to quarantine due to exposure, their friend has died - they are working non-stop at an overwhelmed hospital. It's not a hoax or inflated or a "media lie". It's real. It's your friend. It's on your doorstep. And yes - I have friends who have lost love ones. I have friends who have had to quarantine due to exposure. I know someone who has been working in a Southwest hospital non-stop for months and has said since April "THIS IS NOT A HOAX!" It hits home for me.
I hate wearing a mask. I don't like breathing my CO2 and won't do it in the cold of winter to keep me warm under the blanket. I have to constantly remind myself that I love you enough not to kill you. Even if I don't love you, I love you enough not to kill you. And I am not stupid enough to believe I cannot carry or contract this virus. I trust my doctor over you. Sorry if that upsets you. I'm still boosting my immune system.
This is a new virus and much needs to be learned. Most flu virus' do subside in April and warmer months. This one is not.
It hurt a lot to have our business closed for 6 weeks. I'm growing increasingly frustrated that there has not been a consolidated plan to deal with this pandemic. The "pretend it's not a big deal" approach isn't working. Rational people know better. Germany and Denmark knew better. Iceland knew better.
If we want our economy to come back, we need a unified approach.
It is a "big deal". It is not a HOAX. The media is not "lying" unless they are telling you this is a hoax and not a big deal.

What if I'm wrong?

What if I'm wrong?
What if I wear the mask when out in public, enforce mask wearing in my business, disinfect, wash my hands - all of it - and I'm wrong? What if I believe the statistics and the reporting and I'm wrong?
What if I actually pose no risk to anyone and they pose no risk to me?

What if I'm wrong?
What if I don't wear the mask when out in public, don't enforce mask wearing in my business, don't disinfect, don't wash my hands - exercise my freedom - and I'm wrong? What if I don't believe the statistics and reporting and I'm wrong?
What if I actually pose a risk to everyone I contact and they pose a risk to me?

If I'm going to be wrong, which direction do I want to go? Do I want to wear the mask and actually there is no danger OR do I want to be free and put myself and everyone I encounter in danger?

Wow! That's a tough one.

A Hard way to Live

We don't easily recognize our own irrational bias. We all have them. I recall times I was embarrassed to realize mine. It was shocking. It wasn't anything anyone said but rather my experiencing something that shattered a pre-conceived notion.
One of those experiences happened at Allegheny Collage when I happened upon an art exhibit featuring photos of black neighborhoods in the 1930's. It was long ago and I don't recall if it featured a particular city or variety of cities but the black and white images were stunning and totally confronted my pre-conceived notions about "black life".
All of the homes were fancier than the homes of my family. Beautiful cars were parked in the driveways and the people dressed like movie stars. I circled the gallery several times staring at the images and feeling increasingly stupid. Assumptions are strange things. This was over 40 years ago and it still resonates with me.
I treasure that day because it reminds me to be cautious about assumptions. If someone says something that conflicts with what I believe to be true, I'm more open to exploring it. It makes my life much richer and causes me to be more open to new experiences. I wouldn't want to live another way.
It's shocking to encounter others who vehemently defend what now seems to me to be extreme views. They grow angrier and angrier if confronted with a different perspective. That's a hard way to live. The thing that stands out is fear. And it's fear that is irrational. That's a hard way to live.